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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Case Study free essay sample

KK created incomes through four essential sources: on-premises retail deals, off-premises deals, item blend and apparatus, and franchisee so...

Monday, September 30, 2019

Honor Thy Father and Mother: an Essay Concerning the Condition of Elderly Care in the United States Essay

In the world we live in, we grow up and get older. It’s a sad and simple fact that we can’t be young forever. When we are growing up, we are cared for by our parents, relatives, and many more people. They care for us because at that point in our lives, we didn’t know how to take care of ourselves. As we grew older we learned how to care for ourselves and no longer necessarily needed the help of those other people. There comes a point in our aging process that we begin to forget how to care for ourselves or lose the means to do it alone. Usually what will happen is the family that you have left will either hire someone to care for you in your own home or move you to a nursing facility. Jean Marcusson is an 88 year old woman. She has three kids (one of which is my mother). In May of 2013 she was diagnosed with congestive heart failure. Shortly after it became apparent that she wasn’t able to care for herself in her own home. She was having trouble rememberin g who people were, where she was, and sometime she would forget what she was doing. There were instances where she turned on the stove to boil water for tea, but forgot to put water in the kettle. Abother, when she attended my graduation she didn’t know whose graduation it was. It’s tough for her family to help her when they all have their own lives to lead. Her daughters and son have spent a lot of their time this summer taking care of her, but it is growing old. After a month of taking care of her for a month in her home, the doctors decided that she needed to be put in a rehab center. Immediately after that she was moved into the John Knox Rehab Facility. She was confused, nothing seemed right to her. Her first thought was that she was in a hotel. At that point we began to realize that she was suffering from dementia. She couldn’t tell the difference between her children or grandchildren. She couldn’t remember whether or not her husband was alive or where she lived before arriving at the rehab facility. A few weeks into her stay at John Knox, Jean came down with very serious pneumonia. The doctors decided to move her back to Lee’s Summit Medical Center. Speculation led doctors to believe that she caught it at the rehab center. Once she got better, they moved her back into the facility. She seemed to be doing well, until there was a day when she was completely dehydrated and wouldn’t leave her bed. At first they couldn’t figure out what was wrong. My mom was sitting with her that night and found some pills on the floor. It became apparent that when the nurse brought her pills to her in the morning that she would throw them on the floor once the nurse left the room. The whole episode left her family very upset with the quality of care she was receiving. Another incident was when she decided to go to the restroom without alerting a nurse and fell on her way there. Being old and fragile, she bruised very easily and this fall left the right side of her face blackened . The condition she was in at the rehab center left us to wonder how she could ever live by herself at her home again. Insurance only covered her staying in the rehab center until the end of August. For her to live in her home again, we would have to hire full time nurses that would be there 24/7 to look after her. That’s something that just won’t fly for her, plus it’s expensive. For a nurse to be at her house caring for her eight hours a day, it would cost $5,000 a month. So you can imagine how much 24 hours a day would cost. In my opinion, the rehab center didn’t help Jean at all. I would say it made her worse. Her anxiety developed when they made her leave her home and her dementia got much worse from there. In the year 2000, two thousand nursing homes were studied. The findings reported that 44% said they had been abused. 95% said they had been neglected or had seen another resident be neglected. The National Center of Elder Abuse (NCEA) shows the majority of elderly abuse is physically, resident to resident, or psychological. Nearly 1 in 3 nursing homes have been cited for violating national standards for treatment of the elderly. Over 50% of nursing home staff has admitted to mistreating older patients through violence, mental abuse, and neglect, two thirds of those incidents involved neglect. A survey of Certified Nursing Assistants (CNA) found that 17% of CNAs had pushed or grabbed a nursing home resident, 51% had reported yelling at a resident, and 23% had sworn at residents. A U.S. GAO report to Congress states â€Å"Our work shows that nursing home residents need both stronger and more immediate protections. More should be done to protect nursing home residents.† Another issue I would like to discuss is abuse of the elderly by family or friends. There are some families in this world who have older people in their families who can no longer take care of themselves; to the family these people are vulnerable. The family will begin to care for the elderly person and expect compensation of some sort. Many drug abusers look to take money from the parents or grandparents and are the most likely to abuse a relative. 66% of elderly abuse cases are caused by adult children or spouses. 42% of murder victims over the age of 60 were murdered by their own o ffspring. While we can all agree that abuse of the elderly is a despicable act. It is possible to slightly justify the actions of the abusers. Elderly people aren’t the most enjoyable people to take care of. I can provide a small testimony to that as I work in fast food and I am often given a lot of crap from elderly customers. Honestly, there is no good way to justify elderly abuse, while the actions of the abusers may seem justifiable to them, they aren’t. You can’t justify abusing anyone, but I understand that the abuser had a reason to do what they did that may have seemed right to them. Jean Marcusson’s case is different though, the things she dealt with at John Knox might not have been on purpose. Even if they were, there is nothing we can do to prove it and it would be a waste of time to try. Ensuring that the people that made those mistakes are punished won’t make Jean any better. It severely disturbs me that a person can be okay with hurting a person, especially an elderly one. It amazes me that our parents or other relatives raise us and teach us how to live. Yet when they become old and need our help some refuse because they think that you shouldn’t rely on other people to take care of you. What would have happened had our parents just left us to fend for ourselves and learn the ropes of surviving in this world. We would probably be dead or much different than we are now, that is something I don’t want to imagine. Take care of the elderly as if you were in their position and wanted someone to take care of you. You’ll probably be in that position someday and expect someone to be there to help you.

Sunday, September 29, 2019

Homeostasis and how the body responds to exercise Essay

This report will interpret the results of the practical activities that was done in order to monitor the changes in heart rate, temperature and blood pressure before and after exercise. Blood pressure is the measure of how much pressure is put on the walls of the blood vessels when the blood is pumped through them. This is measured in two parts, the larger number on top is known as the systolic pressure, this measures the pressure as the blood is pumped away from the heart whereas the lower number (The diastolic pressure) measures the pressure as the blood returns to the heart. The normal range for a healthy blood pressure is around 120/80 at rest. When I was at rest I recorded my blood pressure which was 118/57. This blood pressure can be considered normal for my age range and fitness level. However it is possible that the reading may not have been completely accurate due to having eaten recently before, the machine may not have worked properly or because of emotional state at the t ime. The pulse is the measure of how many times the heart beats in one minute. This can be measured in either the artery in the neck (Called the carotid artery) or in the wrist. Though the beat is stronger in the neck it is sometimes more difficult to locate and so most people tend to measure it from the wrist. For a healthy person of my age a pulse rate between 60 and 100 is considered to be normal. When I was at rest my heart rate was 82 bpm (Beats per minute). This could be inaccurate due to being nervous though I took my pulse reading both manually and on a machine and it came back the same both times, which may increase the reliability of the results. I recorded my temperature by placing a thermometer in my mouth, this is because under the tongue is one of the more accurate places to get a reading on the body temperature. The normal body temperature of a person is around 37  °C. At rest my temperature was 36.3  °C. This is a normal temperature. When I did the activities I recorded my heart rate, blood pressure and temperature after 1 minute, 3 minutes and then after 5 minutes of exercise. After one minute my heart rate had increased to 94 Bpm, my temperature was 36.8  °C and my blood pressure was 120/68. This is an increase in when I was at rest due to the body’s need for a higher amount of oxygen to go through the blood to the muscles that needed it; this caused an increase in heart and breathing rate so that there was an increase in the amount of oxygen supply to the  body. There was an increase in temperature because there is an increase in physical activity, which creates an increase in the heat that is given off by the muscles, increasing the overall temperature of the body. I then did the activity again for three minutes before I recorded my heart rate, blood pressure and temperature again. After three minutes there was a further increase in all three results. My heart rate was 112 Bpm, my temperature increased to 37.5 °C and my blood pressure was 120/78. I then repeated the exercise for a further 5 minutes, however there was an interval of where I had to wait to be able to record what the results were. Due to this my heart rate was 102 Bpm, my temperature was 37.3 °C and my blood pressure was 120/75. When an individual exercises there are internal changes that the body must respond to in order to keep the body functioning as it should. As you exercise your pulse and respiration rate increases to compensate for the higher demand of oxygen in the muscles. While your heart and respiration rate increases the muscles also produce heat as a waste product which heats up the body, in order to control the body temperature, the body produces sweat, when an individual sweats the body is trying to cool itself down. This is known as a negative feedback loop, in a negative feedback, the body responds to change by trying to bring it back to the normal range. In a negative feedback there is a stimulus, a sensor, a regulator (Or control) and a effector. In the case of an increase in temperature the stimuli, which would be the skin, sends a signal to the sensor, this is the nerves. Once this happens a signal is then sent to the regulator (Or control), this is the hypothalamus, When this happens another signal is then sent to the effector, which is the sweat glands which respond to the rise in temperature by producing sweat. In conclusion I found that the longer that I exercised the more my readings increased, however these may not be acute due to the equipment was not readily available and so I had to wait to record the readings allowing the results to decrease. Another way this may not be true is because my reading that was taken after 5 minutes was lower than both of the other results, this could be because I had to wait a longer period of time to take the results.

Saturday, September 28, 2019

Discuss the differing role of the therapeutic relationship in three Essay

Discuss the differing role of the therapeutic relationship in three different approaches to therapy - Essay Example g roles of the therapeutic relationship in three different approaches to therapy; namely, psychodynamic therapy, person-centered therapy, and systemic family therapy. Relevant theoretical concepts are included in the discussion, particularly how they are applied to practice. It also includes reflections on personal understanding of the topic as well as reaction to materials presented in the lectures. The psychodynamic therapy is a mainstream therapy that focuses on aspects of personality and is suited to problems that deal with personalities and current relationships (Holmes 2003). It is based on a multifaceted theory of human interaction and development and embraces all others of analytic nature. The approach undertaken in this therapy is one in which the therapist keeps his own personality out of the picture, which is considered a vital aspect, enabling him to play a â€Å"blank canvas† on whom clients can project deep feelings about themselves (ibid). The therapist is able to aid the client in understanding how personal disturbances affect him. The psychodynamic therapy is a long-term therapy that may go on for years since understanding what goes on inside the client takes a long period of time. In this paper, the role of psychodynamic therapy includes the following: Since psychodynamic therapy is a long-term therapy, the individual, through the help of the therapist, is able to view the things that affect his life and how largely it is affected. He helps in bringing to the surface an individual’s true feelings in order for a full understanding of the individual’s self. It is assumed that once one is aware of what really goes on in his mind; feelings about a painful experience will not come as painful. This is why the psychodynamic therapy’s role is to encourage patients unravel the real feelings playing up in their subconscious since through this unraveling, the client will be able to accept the painful experiences and their corresponding feelings. This

Friday, September 27, 2019

Phylogenetic relationships of a group of organisms Essay

Phylogenetic relationships of a group of organisms - Essay Example Phylogenetic analysis by means of cladistics uses shared and derived characteristics as the only criteria for grouping within a genus or species. A shared character is the common feature for all the species being evaluated and a derived character is a feature that evolved only within the group being studied. The hypothetical cladistic analysis will include an organism which is distantly related to the organisms within the group being studied. In the example, this organism is known as the out-group and serves as the starting point for comparison with the other organisms being evaluated. In our example, the earthworm represents this out-group. The other organisms in the group are an eel, a salmon fish, a Lizard, a Turtle and a Lion. In the character table, the organisms are placed sequentially in a row and their characteristics are listed in a column on the left (Table). A character lacking in an organism is scored as ‘0’ and the presence of a particular trait is scored as ‘1’ as shown in the Table. When the characters or traits are displayed in the form of a tree, it represents the cladistic hypothesis of the evolutionary relationship between the organisms under study. The tree showing the above cladistic analysis is as follows: Although a cladogram does not indicate the strength of a derived character or even its evolutionary importance, it does emphasize the sequence in which the derived characters arise from a central phylogenetic tree. In the above example, the earthworm lacks all the listed characteristics while the lion which is at the top of the evolutionary ladder in this analysis possesses

Thursday, September 26, 2019

Terrorism on the Internet Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3000 words

Terrorism on the Internet - Essay Example The attack on the World Trade Center was one where terrorists wreaked an unprecedented level of destruction and the attention of the world was drawn sharply to the dangers posed by the terrorist threat. Sterne (2003) defines terrorism as â€Å"as an act or threat of violence against noncombatants with the objective of exacting revenge, intimidating, or otherwise influencing an audience.† Over the years, the face of terrorism has changed – it is no longer restricted to state sponsored terrorism, but has evolved into specialized local cells, with individual terrorist elements spreading threat in order to achieve their own selfish political or other ends. Sterne clarifies that in this context, terrorism is not the kind of enemy that can be combated on an all out open combat basis. She defines terrorism as â€Å"a kind of virus, which spreads as a result of risk factors at various levels: global, interstate, national and personal."[www.buzzflash.com]. With increasing globalization, the use of the Internet has widened to encompass a new sphere of activities that are facilitated through the electronic medium{Kusher 1998). It is now possible to achieve on an individual basis, a scope of activity that would have previously necessitated the availability of a vast amount of resources and several people. But through the cheap electronic medium, it has become possible for computer savvy individuals to engage in several criminal and terrorist activities that are characterized by the compromising of sensitive information and by large scale destruction. Since most commercial and Government activity has now become e-based, terrorists can cause a great deal of damage by hacking into the databases of Government organizations.

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Public Policy and the rise of Business Enterprise Essay

Public Policy and the rise of Business Enterprise - Essay Example Due to the severe economic recession and other factors, the automobile industry was working below par. A general perception was created amongst the public so as to hate the automobile industry in such a manner that the general public was made to envy the automobile worker because of the increased wage rate within the automobile industry. This envious public policy led to a severe slump within the automobile industry and many of the automobile manufacturers were forced to almost close out their operations within the area but this attitude later changed and the change was brought upon by the Obama administration. Government Support to Home industry The other main emotional issue that has led to such an uproar in this article is because all these Big three American automobile manufacturers, who at one time, were about to go bankrupt and it was only the Obama administration that helped the automobile industry by offering them the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to survive the scare and reach such a position as described in this article. Stakeholders Stakeholders of the American automobile industry were also a part of this entire scenario and all the different groups of the stakeholders had their own personal interest in this. The major stakeholders concerned with the American automobile industry would be the owners of the automobile manufacturer, the employees within these automobile manufacturing companies, the government, the customers and the suppliers of these automobile manufacturers with each and every stakeholder having a personal interest. The owners would be worried about their personal investments within the company and with this increase in sales; the owners would get delighted as their returns would increase. The government would be worried about the increased level of unemployment had these automobile manufacturers ceased to operated due to bankruptcy. The improved figures in revenue would have saved the jobs. The employees would have been affecte d had they been redundant, the increased revenue have given them a hope of surviving. The customers would have to buy cars at high prices if the automobile manufacturer would have closed due to bankruptcy. The suppliers would have to find alternate customers if these companies would have closed (Drives, 2011). Policy options and implementation Public policy is usually a government action taken in order to answer any particular issue within a country; these actions are taken with respect to the legal and the administrative traditions prevailing in the country. The main issue within the article is the success story of the American automobile manufacturer namely Chrysler, General Motors and Ford. The success story starts with the initial failure that of these 3 big automaker manufacturers and how the government and the labor staff worked together to help companies like Chrysler and General Motors. The United Auto Workers worked together with General Motors to keep the Work force intact at a time when General Motor was about to go bankrupt. More recently, both General Motors and the United Auto Workers union are making to reach an agreement so that fixed costs can be reduced within General Motors. This shows how the company is working in order

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Cajun Food in South Korea Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Cajun Food in South Korea - Essay Example Target country for this case is South Korea. South Korean people are very much attracted towards the sea food items. That is why the country is an automatic choice for this business expansion. Food habits of South Korean people are significantly suitable and at par with the Cajun Food item. High level of seafood affinity from Korean people has made this place absolutely suitable for the particular food item. Availability of seafood items has made Korean peninsula an attractive destination for Cajun Foods. The aim of the project is to expand the idea of Kajun food into the market of South Korea by removing its competitor â€Å"The Boiling Crab and Cajun Restaurant Pier 17†. Another way it can deal with it is to start a joint venture with its competitor. Kajun has the motive to explain & elaborate the present trend in the ROI market. The food under consideration originated from the deepest part of Louisiana and Mississippi. The flavors of the food consist of an amalgamation of sea foods with spices. The availability of sea food is ensured by the bordering Japan Sea and Yellow Sea. Sea food always forms a major item of the people living in the boundaries of Eastern Asia. The study confers to expansion into the markets of South Korea. The brand name of this company is Cajun. This brand overcomes the cultural barriers. It gives a youthful perception and tries to increase the frequency of the purchase. This brand delivers a common message to all of its customers. Kajun aims to offer a new taste to the western world with the slogan that the south has risen following Kajun’s lifestyle. The packaging can be done in tinned containers for export purpose. Such packaging system will keep the food fresh. The customers can buy frozen fresh Cajun food. For instant serving the food can be served on platters. The mission of the company is provide best quality food to the customers and so it is advised to make the packaging

Monday, September 23, 2019

Media Relations Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words - 4

Media Relations - Assignment Example With respect to Zimmerman’s case, Sanford police department and city officials would have instituted contingency measures meant to facilitate professional response to such situations. In this case, media relations officers for the police force should have responded to journalists’ questions in a consistent and convincing manner2. Relevant media respondents would have allowed timely provision of preliminary assumptions of Martin’s death. Such timely and convincing response helps to build public support; hence activating a positive public opinion for the institutions. Modern federal and state institutions across the US adopt substantial use of internet in their process of distributing information. In the case of Martin’s death, Sanford police department availed limited information through the city website3. Within the use of internet media, there is a significant growth of popularity in blogging from sections of participatory journalism and even from the mainstream public. Blogging utilizes technological advances used in HTML and FLP. Once organizations publish articles in their website, the technology allows readers to leave comments below the articles. This technology serves as an appropriate platform where media personnel and the public members engage in interactive conversations concerning a subject under considerations. Blogs, being a dynamic media technology, poses both positive and negative ramifications. Positive comments can enhance development of a constructive interactions; hence developing a reputable perspective on the article’s content4. On the other hand, lack of timely and reliable information in website articles like in the case of Martin’s death sparks the public to leave negative comments that twists public opinion on an

Sunday, September 22, 2019

Videotape reflection Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words - 1

Videotape reflection - Coursework Example I went further ahead in providing outstanding examples on the same. However, after a long talk I realized that she was not informed on the available learning points. For instance, she felt displaced when I used terms such as accommodation. I however took the professional role of explaining to her in detail what the course entailed. In addition, I realized that on top of missing critical information, my communication skills were wanting. In particular, my language was not active which upset him a little. I was poorly composed throughout the meeting. I began appropriately while composed. I introduced myself to Mrs. Shorts as well; I present the purpose of the meeting. Secondly, I never felt pressured to make important decisions. In fact, I explained everything to Mrs. Shorts, leaving her to make the decisions. I let Mrs. Shorts know that she can trust me. I avoided discussing too many negative issues of Chris; in fact, I focused on building Chris academically only. Equally, important I presented Chris agenda in a professional way leaving Mrs. Shorts to make critical decisions. However, I faced challenges in how I expressed myself, in light with conveying critical information. As well, I was a bit nervous while talking to Mrs. Shorts. Convincingly, I realized that in order to get composed for the discussion, I had to introduce Chris topic early; that is literacy development and academic success. I went forth to explain the importance of the collaborative relationship between Mrs. Shorts and me. I as well was obliged in accepting that parents view their role in different ways, which made me more knowledgeable about cultural diversity, and it affected my relationship with Mrs. Shorts. I build parents’ knowledge of literacy procedures where I assumed that Mrs. Shorts was supporting Chris learning. I even enquired how the boy performed while at home. In particular, I

Saturday, September 21, 2019

Campbell Soup Employee Engagement Essay Example for Free

Campbell Soup Employee Engagement Essay Douglas Conant, the CEO of Campbell Soup Co. discussed the importance of employee engagement and how Campbell’s strategy to pay attention to this metric paid off for their company. Conant took over in 2001 when Campbells was close to a takeover and its soup sales had drastically declined amid fierce competition. Furthermore, some of its best employees had left the company rather than wait out the hard times. Conant recognized that of all the elements related to corporate culture, employee engagement was the most highly correlated to shareholder returns. Therefore, to turn things around, Conant implemented the Campbell Promise of â€Å"Campbell Valuing People, People Valuing Campbell† with the strategy that: To win in the market place, we believe you must first win in the workplace. I’m obsessed with keeping employee engagement front and center and keeping up energy around it. † In 2002 Conant hired the help of Gallup, a polling and research firm, to better understand his company’s engagement levels. Gallup found that 62% of Campbell’s managers were not actively engaged in their jobs and 12% were actively disengaged. Those numbers were some of the worst for any Fortune 500 firm ever polled. By Gallup standards the ideal level of employee engagement is to have a ratio of 12 actively engaged employees for every disengaged employee. Campbell’s ratio was only 2:1; that is, only 2 actively engaged employees for every disengaged employee. Strategies to Motivate and Engage Employees †¢Bring down barriers, literally – Conant had barbed wire fencing removed from Campbell’s Camden, NJ facility to create pleasant work environment †¢Promoting from within – replaced 300 of the company’s 350 leaders half of whom were promoted from within the company. This â€Å"changed the culture and sent a message that few could ignore. † †¢Annual surveys of all 580 work groups simultaneously – managers review the results with their direct reports and everyone is updated on their progress related to specific goals. Leaders are measured on their ability to inspire trust in those around them. †¢Recognition Events – celebrate at a high level when people do things well. †¢CEO’s acknowledgement – Conant sends out about 20 thank-you notes a day to staffers, on all levels. Open communication every six weeks CEO has lunch with a group of a dozen or so employees to get their perspective on the business, to address problems and to get feedback.

Friday, September 20, 2019

Decadal Variability of Precipitation in China

Decadal Variability of Precipitation in China Introduction China is located in the East Asian monsoon region, the variations of the amount and distribution of precipitation over China are strongly modulated by the East Asian monsoon. As the most important features of the East Asian monsoon is a significant multi-scale variation and thus the precipitation in China also showed great variations, persistent heavy rainfall over eastern China often results in hazardous climate events such as floods and droughts. According to statistics, since the 1980s, large-scale droughts and other weather disasters have brought severe damage to our industrial and agricultural production and the economic losses due to droughts and floods reach 200 billion RMB every year, accounting for about 3% to 6% of the national economic output. Thus, it is important to understand the variations of rainfall over eastern China and their associated physical processes (Zhai et al., 2005). A lot of studies have revealed the climate characteristics, weather and circulation features, as well as the formation mechanisms of precipitation over China on different time scales, and carried out monthly, quarterly and annual precipitation forecasts. However, there are still significant inaccuracies on the current forecasts of precipitation. Precipitation is a complex meteorological phenomenon which exhibits oscillations at different time scales, including long-term trends, decadal oscillation, interannual oscillation, seasonal variation and high frequency oscillation. An important reason to these inaccuracies in forecasts is that the depth and completeness of the understanding to the changes and mechanisms of precipitation patterns on different time scales is still not enough. Previous studies indicate that the decadal scale is a very important time scale, on one hand, it could be treated as a turbulence superimposed on the long-term trend, for example, the decline in global temperatures during the 1940s to the mid-1970s slowed the global warming since 20 century (Wang, 1999). One the other hand, the decadal variability could be treated as an important background for the interannual variability, which has some influence on the interannual variability. Therefore, understanding the characteristics and possible mechanisms of the decadal-scale climate changes, and determining their degree of predictability have become major global scientific issues (Jiang, 2000). Improving the understanding and knowledge of the decadal climate variability, and estimating the climate changes in the coming decades scientifically will provide important implications for water resources, agriculture, energy and the development of national long-term development plan. 1. Features of decadal precipitation variation in China Since the beginning of 1980s, many researchers have noticed the decadal variations of precipitation in China (Wu et al., 1986; Zhang, 1989). Some studies have shown that there is a clear decadal variability of summer rainfall over eastern China during the second half of the 20th century (Zhao, 1999; Wang, 2001). Power spectrum analyses for summer rainfall showed a significant peak at 26.7 years. A drying trend was found in northern China and a wetting trend was found in central China in the last decades (Hu et al., 2003; Lei et al., 2010). In eastern China, the precipitation showed a wetting trend over the middle-lower Yangtze River valley and a drying trend over the Yellow River valley during the past 40 years, which indicates a southward shift of the rain belt over eastern China. Interestingly, the summer rainfall over eastern China also showed a positive-negative-positive pattern on the decadal time scale, which means that when there is more rainfall over Yangtze River, there would be less rainfall over both northern China and southeastern China, this pattern could be related to the dipole pattern and the positive-negative-positive pattern of the meridional winds (Ren et al., 2000; Wang and Zhai, 2003; Liu et al., 2005; Zhao and Zhou, 2006; Ding et al., 2007). The studies on summer rainfall over North China showed that the decadal variation is also evident (Chen, 1999; Huang et al., 1999; Li et al., 2002). From 1883 to 1898 and from 1949 to 1964 there is relatively abundant precipitation over North China, while from 1899 to 1920 and from 1965 to 1997 there is relatively less precipitation than normal over North China. This decadal variation caused severe climatic disasters, especially there was a persistent drought in northern China, resulting in the area of water resource scarcity (Huang et al., 1999; Zhang et al., 1999). Precipitation variation over western China is quite different form eastern China. In eastern China, There was no linear trend of precipitation was dominant during last decades. On the contrary, the increasing trend of precipitation in west China was very noticeable especially during the last 30 years. 1.2 Possible forcing factors for the decadal precipitation variation in China Since the 1980s, the atmospheric circulation, the weather and climate systems and the thermal forcing factor which affect the droughts and floods in China all exhibit an obvious 10-year interannual variation trend (Chen et al. 2002). To the decadal time scale forecast, the coupled air-sea interaction decadal mode is essential for the decadal precipitation forecast in East Asia. In contrast, the response of decadal climate change to human activities is not that important (Hawkins et al., 2009). 1.2.1 The decadal variation of East Asian monsoon The variability of precipitation over eastern China is strongly modulated by the East Asian monsoon (e.g., Zhao and Xu 2002; Hu et al. 2003; Zhang et al. 2004). According to the studies, monsoon has significant variation on decadal time scale (Webster et al., 1998; Huang et al., 2003). The Indian summer monsoon circulation underwent two weakening processes in the last 50 years, one in the mid-1960s and the other in the late 1970s, the rain belt shift in East China was in great agreement with the later weakness of the monsoon. When the East Asian summer monsoon became weaker during 1970s, the location of rainy belt in eastern China also moved from North China to the Yellow River and the Huaihe River (Wang, 2001; Zhu et al., 2001; Guo, et al., 2004; Ding et al., 2007; Zeng et al., 2007). In associate with the variation of monsoon, the locations of subtropical High and Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) also have related changes, they move to the north if the summer monsoon is strong and active, and displace to the south when the summer monsoon is weaker. In connection with these changes, before 1976, the East Asian summer monsoon was in an active phase, the summer precipitation was stronger in North China, while after 1976, the North China suffered a drier period (Li et al, 2001). 1.2.2 The decadal variation of sea surface temperature The decadal variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific and Indian Oceans play important roles in the variations of rainfall over eastern China (Ju and Slingo, 1995; Hu, 1997; Weng et al., 1999; Chang et al., 2000). Gong and Ho (2002) also proposed that, since 1980, the variations of SST over the tropical eastern Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean were primarily responsible for the shift in summer rainfall over eastern China through their effects on the subtropical northwestern Pacific high. Further more, Yang and Lau (2004) have statistically obtained that a high negative relationship between the tropical central and eastern Pacific SSTs and the northern China precipitation had been confirmed, while over central eastern China, the inter-annual variation of precipitation is positively correlated with a north-south dipole mode of SST anomalies over the western North Pacific, the tropical Indian ocean and warm pool. In the 1990s, the research on decadal variation originally focused on the oceanic state, because the oceanic variability was thought to be a slower process and its decadal features more evident. In the Pacific Ocean, decadal variation of the ENSO has been studied (Wang, 1995; Qian et al., 1998) and the EOF analysis of SST in the North Pacific still shows an decadal variation feature. The remaining part of the main EOF components, which is similar to the ENSO mode, was regarded as the decadal variation and named the â€Å"ENSO-like mode† (Zhang et al., 1997) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Mantua et al., 1997). PDO is one of the strongest and most important signals of global decadal variability, the relationship between PDO and the decadal climate variation in China is get great interest. Zhu et al. (2003) and Zhang et al. (2007) pointed out that when the PDO is in the positive phase, the East Asian summer monsoon is weaker, and results in the drought in North China a nd flood in Huai River Basin. 1.2.3 The decadal variation of snow depth In contrast to the decreasing trend of the Eurasian winter and spring snow cover, the winter and spring snow cover, snow depth and number of snow days over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have had an increasing trend during the last 45 years (1956–2000) (Li, 2002), with an abrupt increase occurring in the late 1970s (Liu et al., 2003; Zhang et al., 2004; Peng et al., 2005). Correlative relationship between the TP winter and spring snow and the Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall have been studied by a number of investigators with observed analyses (NCC, 1998; Qian et al., 2003; Wu and Qian, 2003; Liu et al., 2003; Zhang et al., 2004) and modelling simulations (Zwiers, 1993; Qian et al., 2003; Liu et al., 2004). Modelling results have shown the similar inverse relationship between excessive (deficient) TP winter and spring snow and a decreasing (increasing) intensity of the Asian summer monsoon (the South Asian and East Asian summer monsoon) through the snow monsoon mechanis m. At the same time, they have further obtained a positive (negative) correlative relationship between the preceding winter and spring snow over TP and summer rainfalls in the Yangtze River basin (North China). This correlative relationship has been used in the seasonal prediction of the National Climate Center of China as a useful climate signal, and considerable success has been achieved, particularly for the seasonal prediction of the prolonged, excessively heavy rainfall and unprecedented flooding event in 1998 over the Yangtze River basin which was preceded by extremely excessive winter and spring snow over the TP. 1.2.4 Other forcing factors Besides SSTs and snow depth, Yu et al. (2004) attributed the pattern of rainfall changes over eastern China to the summer cooling at the upper troposphere over extra-tropical East Asia, which was assumedly associated with stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Changes in both land temperature and SST modify land-ocean temperature gradients. When the temperature gradients became smaller, the southwesterly monsoon flow weakened and the moisture transported to southern China decreased, causing the local drying trend (Cheng et al. 2005). More recently, Ding et al. (2007) showed that the significant weakening of the tropical upper-level easterly jet, which could also be a result of the reduced temperature gradients, provided a dominant mechanism for the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon over the past 40 years. In addition, climate consequences of black and sulphate carbon aerosols are used to explain climate change in the Asian monsoon region in recent decades, including the tendency toward increased summer floods in South China and increased drought in North China (Ramanathan et al., 2001; Xu, 2001; Menon et al., 2002; Lau and Kim, 2006). Summary Conclusions as a result, It has been found that the decadal variability of precipitation in China for the past 50 years is very significant, with two major characteristic features identified: (1) occurrence of prolonged droughts in North China and, at the same time, marked flooding conditions in the Yangtze River basin and South China in the period from the end of the 1970s to the beginning of the 21st century, and (2) the rainfall regime has undergone an obvious abrupt shift or jump in the mid- and late 1970s. This precipitation regime shift is in good coincidence with a significant abrupt climate change or jump which has been extensively observed in other regions over the world as well as for other variables. Several studies have indicated that the Asian summer monsoon has become weaker after the end of the 1970s. In connection with this change, the summer rainfall decreased over the lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Huaihe River. However, it is not clear yet how the weakening of the Asian (especially the East Asian) summer monsoon affects the significant southward shift of precipitation patterns in East China. Furthermore, the reason why the inter-decadal weakening of the Asian summer monsoon occurred remains an open question. Studies also show that the inter-annual and decadal variations of the sea surface temperature in the Pacific and Indian Oceans have an impact on the variation of precipitation in China. When the SST in the North Pacific Ocean becomes cooler, the East Asian summer monsoon would be weaker, and results in the drought in North China and flood in Huai River Basin. Although the influence of SSTs on the Asian summer monsoon and the precipitation in China has been recognized, not all the variances of precipitation can be explained by SSTs. Some researchers focused on the impact of Eurasian spring snow cover as well as the TP winter and spring snow. They found that the Asian summer monsoon circulation has a negative correlative relationship with the preceding winter and spring snow over TP, which means, when there is an increasing trend of the snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau, the summer rainfalls in the Yangtze River basin would increase too. Although the features and possible forcing factors of the decadal variation of precipitation in China have been studied, there are still some key issues remained to be solved. For example, is there a coherent change in large-scale circulation features in the Asian region to correspond to the above inter-decadal variability of the summer precipitation in East China, especially the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon and its subsequent effect on significant shift of summer precipitation patterns in East Asia? Is the regime shift of summer precipitation in East China mainly a response to weakening in large-scale monsoon circulation systems in the Asian region? Further studies will be needed to solve these issues.